Australia Rooftop Solar Market Size, Share and Outlook - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035)

Market Overview

The Australia rooftop solar market is in a record-setting phase. Installations dipped in 2025 as households waited for battery rebates, then rebounded sharply in 2026, with the strongest half-year capacity ever recorded and larger systems paired with storage.

Three forces shape the outlook: federal incentives that now reward batteries and commercial systems, a shift from string inverters to hybrid and microinverter designs, and state programs that tighten eligibility as uptake matures and replacement demand grows.

In February 2026 the Clean Energy Council reported 2.6 GW added in 2025, in August 2026 the government announced eligibility up to 1 MW from October, and in September 2026 the council reported 1,894 MW installed in the first half.

Key Market Trends and Insights

• Record half-year: The Clean Energy Council reported 1,894 MW of rooftop solar installed in the first half of 2026, up 41% year on year and the highest six-month total on record.
• Commercial scheme expansion: From 1 October 2026 the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme covers systems up to 1 MW, which government estimates would cut installation costs for eligible businesses by about 20%.
• Certificate volumes: The Clean Energy Regulator said 7.7 million small-scale certificates were created in the June 2026 quarter, up 31% on the same quarter of 2025.
• Battery attachment: The council counted 153 home batteries per 100 rooftop solar installations in the first half of 2026, up from 130 in the second half of 2025.

Australia Rooftop Solar Market Size and Forecast

The market is moving from small string-inverter systems sold on payback towards larger, battery-ready installations sold on self-consumption and backup. Residential systems up to 10 kW and string inverters still lead because most roofs and installer skills are built around them, while the 100 kW to 1 MW band, industrial and agricultural users and hybrid inverters advance fastest as eligibility widens. New South Wales remains the largest base, and Queensland grows quickest from a comparably large one. Rebate design, network approvals and replacement of ageing systems support a durable multi-year outlook rather than a one-off surge tied to a single incentive.

Key Takeaways: Australia Rooftop Solar Market

Eligibility Changes Reshape Demand

Revenue is set to rise from AUD 2.95 billion in 2025 to AUD 4.81 billion in 2035 at a 5.0% CAGR, as scheme changes and replacement demand offset falling hardware prices.

Large Systems and Hybrid Inverters Lead Growth

Residential systems remain the largest segment, but systems of 100 kW to 1 MW grow at an estimated 10.2% CAGR and hybrid inverters at 8.3% through 2035, driven by commercial eligibility and battery attachment.

Commercial Buyers Gain Most From the 1 MW Rule

The expanded scheme gives industrial, agricultural and commercial buyers an upfront discount, which the government illustrated with two example system sizes.

• About AUD 68,000 discount on a 250 kW system
• About AUD 232,000 discount on an 850 kW system
• Effective 1 October 2026, subject to regulations

Australia Rooftop Solar Market Report Summary

Key Insight

Incentive design, high power prices and battery pairing shape demand. Larger commercial systems and hybrid inverters expand fastest while residential string-inverter installations remain the largest base.

Key Trends in the Australia Rooftop Solar Market

The Australia rooftop solar market is being reshaped by record installation volumes, battery-linked incentives, commercial scheme expansion and tighter state eligibility.

September 2026 - Clean Energy Council Reports Record Half-Year

• The Clean Energy Council reported on 29 September 2026 that 180,878 rooftop systems totalling 1,894 MW were installed in the first half of 2026.
• Capacity rose 41% year on year, while June-quarter installations of 102,234 systems were a quarterly record.
• Rooftop solar supplied 12.9% of national generation, and the council said capacity now exceeds the remaining coal fleet.

August 2026 - Government Extends Small-Scale Scheme to 1 MW

• Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen announced in August 2026 that scheme eligibility rises from 100 kW to 1 MW from 1 October 2026.
• Government estimates put installation cost reductions for eligible commercial, industrial and agricultural systems at about 20%.
• The government will also ask the Australian Energy Market Commission to consider faster network approvals for commercial solar.

July 2026 - Victoria Lowers Solar Homes Income Cap

• From 1 July 2026 Victoria cut the household income cap for Solar Homes rebates from AUD 210,000 to AUD 150,000.
• The rebate stays at up to AUD 1,400 for solar panels, or an equivalent interest-free loan.
• The state said over 850,000 small-scale systems are installed, and over 80% of existing customers would still qualify.

May 2026 - Battery Rebate Changes Alter Solar Sales Mix

• Revised Cheaper Home Batteries Program settings took effect on 1 May 2026, after battery demand peaked in April.
• The Clean Energy Regulator said over 80% of solar installs included a battery in April, falling below 50% in May and June.
• Average battery size fell from 36 kWh in April to 23 kWh in May and June.

Key Insight

Policy is shifting from household panels towards storage-linked and larger commercial systems, while states narrow eligibility as uptake matures and installers adapt to changing certificate and rebate settings.

Recent Market Developments in the Australia Rooftop Solar Market

Recent developments, presented from the most recent, show the Australia rooftop solar market moving from record regulator data and distributor deals into new product launches.

August 2026 - Clean Energy Regulator Confirms Record Quarter

• The Clean Energy Regulator reported on 28 August 2026 that 1 GW of rooftop solar was installed in the June 2026 quarter, a record.
• Quarterly installations rose 74% year on year, with average system size at 10.5 kW and about 25% of installs replacing older systems.
• Systems of 15 to 40 kW made up 26% of installations, against 16% a year earlier.

June 2026 - Fox ESS and Solar Juice Sign Storage Agreement

• Fox ESS and Solar Juice signed a 5 GWh energy storage agreement in June 2026, extending a partnership begun in October 2025.
• The release described a two-year supply target across Australia's installer network.
• Solar Juice described itself as a 100% Australian-owned distributor of solar, battery and EV charging products.

May 2026 - GoodWe Appoints Solar Juice as Distributor

• GoodWe announced a strategic distribution partnership with Solar Juice in Australia on 7 May 2026.
• The initial range is GoodWe's ESA series of all-in-one storage systems, offering 63A whole-home backup.
• Solar Juice will add further GoodWe products to its national installer supply over time.

March 2026 - Enphase Launches IQ Energy Management

• Enphase Energy launched IQ Energy Management in Australia and New Zealand on 26 March 2026.
• The software works with Enphase solar and IQ Battery systems to respond to variable electricity rates.
• It also controls selected third-party water heaters and electric vehicle chargers through the Enphase app.

Key Insight

Recent events show record regulator data, distributor alliances and software launches converging, giving installers firmer evidence of demand and new ways to sell storage-ready solar systems.

Australia Rooftop Solar Industry Segmentation

The Expert Market Research’s report on the Australia Rooftop Solar Market offers a detailed analysis of the market based on the following segments.

Market Breakup by End User

• Residential
• Small Business and Commercial
• Industrial and Agricultural
• Others

Residential leads because the Clean Energy Council counted 273,672 installations in 2025 and 180,878 in the first half of 2026, mostly on homes. Industrial and Agricultural grows fastest at an estimated 9.4% CAGR through 2035, because the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme covers systems up to 1 MW from 1 October 2026. Small Business and Commercial gains as systems of 15 to 40 kW reached 26% of installations in the June 2026 quarter, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. Others cover community halls, schools and council buildings that buy smaller systems through local programs.

Market Breakup by System Size

• Up to 10 kW
• 10 to 40 kW
• 40 to 100 kW
• 100 kW to 1 MW
• Others

Up to 10 kW leads because most suburban roofs fit a system of this size, even though the average installed system reached 10.5 kW in the June 2026 quarter. 100 kW to 1 MW grows fastest at an estimated 10.2% CAGR, since the government illustrated discounts of about AUD 68,000 on a 250 kW system and AUD 232,000 on an 850 kW system in August 2026. 10 to 40 kW grows steadily as larger homes and small businesses add panels. 40 to 100 kW suits shopping centres, schools and light industry, and grows near the market average.

Market Breakup by Inverter Type

• String Inverters
• Hybrid Inverters
• Microinverters
• Power Optimiser Systems
• Others

String Inverters lead because they are the lowest-cost option for unshaded roofs, and Sungrow won number one for residential inverters in May 2026 industry awards. Hybrid Inverters grow fastest at an estimated 8.3% CAGR, as over 80% of solar installs included a battery in April 2026, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. Microinverters advance as Enphase launched IQ Energy Management in March 2026, adding tariff-aware control for shaded or complex roofs. Power Optimiser Systems keep a niche in module-level monitoring and grow below the market average.

Market Breakup by Region

• New South Wales
• Queensland
• Victoria
• Western Australia
• South Australia
• Others

New South Wales dominates, with 761 MW added in 2025 and 7.96 GW installed by December 2025 according to the Clean Energy Council, and grows at an estimated 4.8% CAGR. Queensland is fastest at an estimated 5.8%, after adding 714 MW in 2025 and reaching 7.58 GW. Victoria, at 4.3%, tightened its Solar Homes income cap to AUD 150,000 in July 2026. Western Australia grows at 5.2% from 3.10 GW, while South Australia, at 4.6%, holds 2.85 GW. Others, at 5.1%, group Tasmania, the ACT and the Northern Territory, which together hold about 1.2 GW.

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Purchase the Regional Overview for USD 1099

If you choose to purchase the full report at a later stage, the amount already paid will be adjusted, and you will only need to pay the remaining balance.

Competitive Landscape in the Australia Rooftop Solar Market

Competition combines global inverter and battery makers, Australian distributors and a fragmented installer base. Barriers include listing on the Clean Energy Council approved products list, distributor relationships, installer training, firmware support and the ability to ship hybrid systems that qualify for rebates.

Sungrow

Sungrow, headquartered in Hefei, China, supplies inverters and energy storage and employs more than 100 people in Australia, including over 60 engineers and technicians. In May 2026 it was named number one for residential inverters, commercial inverters and commercial storage in industry awards based on 2025 installations. In November 2025 distributor Raystech agreed to supply 1 GWh of Sungrow batteries during 2026.

Tesla

Tesla, headquartered in Austin, Texas, sells Powerwall home batteries and solar products in Australia through its energy business and certified installers. In February 2026 Supply Partners Group signed an agreement to distribute Powerwall across Australia, with stock due that month and sales starting in mid-March 2026. Powerwall 3 is listed for the federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program, which anchors demand for solar-plus-storage households.

Enphase Energy

Enphase Energy, headquartered in Fremont, California, makes microinverters, IQ Battery systems and energy management software sold through Australian installers. On 26 March 2026 it launched IQ Energy Management in Australia and New Zealand, using the IQ Energy Router to manage variable tariffs and control third-party water heaters and electric vehicle chargers. This positions microinverter buyers to capture battery and appliance-control revenue.

Sigenergy

Sigenergy is a Shanghai-based maker of the SigenStor hybrid inverter and battery system, built on lithium iron phosphate packs of 5 kWh and 8 kWh that stack up to 48 kWh. It held 31.4% of blended battery capacity by May 2025, according to an industry tracker. In November 2025 a limited recall covered about 100 single-phase units over AC plug overheating, with free replacement offered.

Other players operating in the Australia rooftop solar market include Fronius, SolarEdge, GoodWe, Fox ESS, and Solar Juice, alongside module suppliers, state and national retailers, distributors and thousands of accredited installers supplying homes and businesses across Australia.

Key Insight

Competition turns on distributor access, hybrid inverter capability and installer support rather than panel price alone, favouring suppliers that pair solar with storage and software for rebate-eligible systems.