New Zealand Telecom MNO Market Size, Share and Outlook - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035)

Market Overview

The New Zealand telecom MNO market is maturing rather than stalling. Population growth is modest and prices are contested, yet operators are lifting average revenue through data-rich plans, retiring 3G to free spectrum and adding satellite coverage for the large share of land that towers do not reach.

Three forces are shaping the market: rising data use, which reached 8.40 GB per connection in the year to June 2025; network renewal, with 2G and 3G closed by March 2026; and satellite-to-mobile services, which One NZ and Spark launched on Starlink and 2degrees is preparing with AST SpaceMobile.

In May 2026 One NZ reported about 1.98 million mobile connections for its financial year, and in August 2026 Spark returned mobile service revenue to growth. The Commerce Commission published its latest monitoring report on 29 June 2026, recording 6.9 million connections.

Key Market Trends and Insights

• Large connection base: The Commerce Commission recorded 6.9 million active mobile connections in the year to June 2025, equal to 129 connections per 100 people.
• Heavier data use: Average monthly use reached 8.40 GB per connection, and prepaid accounted for 46.3% of connections, so plan upgrades remain a key lever for revenue.
• Competitive pressure from virtual operators: Virtual operators held 3.2% of connections at 30 June 2025, up 0.7 percentage points, which keeps pricing disciplined at the entry level.
• Satellite reach: One NZ said in December 2025 that its satellite service covers about 40% of New Zealand's land without conventional mobile signal.

New Zealand Telecom MNO Market Size and Forecast

The market is moving from voice-led revenue to data, connected devices and coverage extension. Mobile data services lead in value because every plan bundles allowances that grow each year, while voice and messaging flatten as legacy voice falls. IoT and machine-to-machine connectivity advance fastest among services, and satellite direct-to-cell grows quickest among technologies from a very small base as three operators sell it. The closure of 2G and 3G lets operators reuse spectrum for 4G and 5G, and enterprise and government demand grows fastest among customer groups. Auckland remains the largest region, and Waikato grows quickest on logistics, dairy and industrial activity. Regulation, spectrum policy and satellite partnerships point to a durable change in product mix rather than a short cycle, even as price competition stays firm.

Key Takeaways: New Zealand Telecom MNO Market

Data Growth and Plan Upgrades Anchor Revenue

Revenue is on course to expand by about 40% across the decade, from USD 1,950.00 million in 2025 to USD 2,724.21 million in 2035 at a 3.4% CAGR. Data use of 8.40 GB per connection and a base of 6.9 million connections support steady upgrades even as virtual operators gain share.

Connected Devices and Satellite Coverage Lead Growth

Mobile data holds the largest share, but IoT and Machine-to-Machine Connectivity grows at an estimated 6.4% CAGR and Satellite Direct-to-Cell at an estimated 11.8% CAGR through 2035. One NZ added satellite data and WhatsApp calling in February 2026, and Spark followed in April 2026.

Network Renewal Reshapes Spending

All three networks closed 2G and 3G between February and March 2026, so spectrum and capital now move towards 4G, 5G and satellite partnerships. Operators are trading legacy handsets for newer devices and defending margins.

• 2degrees finished its 3G shutdown in February 2026
• One NZ completed its 2G and 3G shutdown on 23 March 2026
• Spark confirmed its 3G retirement in March 2026

New Zealand Telecom MNO Market Report Summary

Key Insight

Demand is shifting from voice towards data, connected devices and satellite coverage as older networks close and fifth-generation capacity spreads. Auckland leads, and Waikato grows fastest.

Key Trends in the New Zealand Telecom MNO Market

The New Zealand telecom MNO market is being reshaped by regulator data on connections, satellite-to-mobile launches, the closure of legacy networks and new data features on satellite.

June 2026 - Commerce Commission Report Records 6.9 Million Mobile Connections

• The Commerce Commission published its 2025 Telecommunications Monitoring Report on 29 June 2026, covering the year to June 2025.
• It recorded mobile retail revenue of NZ$3.28 billion, average data use of 8.40 GB per connection and prepaid at 46.3% of connections.
• Virtual operators reached 3.2% of connections, so network owners face growing pressure on entry-level pricing.

April 2026 - Spark Launches Starlink Mobile for Customers on 1 April 2026

• Spark began offering satellite text and limited data on 1 April 2026, using Starlink's direct-to-cell network on standard 4G phones.
• Launch apps included WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, Google Maps and AccuWeather, and the service reaches the roughly 40% of land without towers.
• Trade coverage reported the service as included on plans from NZ$75 a month, which turns coverage into a plan upgrade driver.

March 2026 - One NZ Completes 2G and 3G Shutdown on 23 March 2026

• One NZ finished closing its 2G and 3G networks on 23 March 2026, after starting in Dunedin in January 2026.
• Chief technology officer Kieran Byrne said NZ$100 million had been invested over the previous 12 months to support the change.
• 2degrees had completed its shutdown a month earlier, and Spark confirmed its own retirement later in March 2026.

February 2026 - One NZ Adds Satellite Data and WhatsApp Calling

• One NZ announced on 2 February 2026 that eligible customers could use limited app data and WhatsApp calling over Starlink's satellites.
• Supported devices include iPhone 13 and later models and Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 and Flip7, with apps such as Google Maps and AllTrails.
• The company said more than 10 million satellite texts had been sent, showing early demand for coverage beyond towers.

Key Insight

Regulator data, the closure of legacy networks and satellite launches by two operators are the main structural forces, while price pressure from virtual operators remains the main risk to revenue.

Recent Market Developments in the New Zealand Telecom MNO Market

Recent developments, presented from the most recent, show Spark and One NZ annual results, satellite adoption milestones and a challenger's results alongside its satellite plans.

August 2026 - Spark Returns Mobile Service Revenue to Growth in Annual Result

• On 20 August 2026 Spark reported mobile revenue up 4.4% to NZ$1.517 billion and mobile service revenue up 1.1% to NZ$998 million.
• Higher average revenue per user in consumer and small business plans drove the gain, and legacy voice fell to 3.2% of revenue.
• Spark declared a final dividend of 8 cents per share and flagged a strategic review of non-core activities.

May 2026 - One NZ Reports About 1.98 Million Mobile Connections for Its Financial Year

• Infratil's results for the year ended 31 March 2026 showed One NZ mobile connections up 0.8% to 1,978.8 thousand.
• Mobile recurring revenue rose 2.0% to NZ$847.3 million, within total revenue of NZ$1,998.4 million.
• EBITDAF edged up 0.6% to NZ$608.6 million, which shows growth in mobile is steady rather than rapid.

December 2025 - One NZ Marks One Year of Satellite Texting

• On 17 December 2025 One NZ said more than 7 million satellite texts had been sent and over 700,000 customers were eligible.
• The service works on more than 70 device models, and messages rose 300% during the Southland outages.
• Emergency settings were opened three times in 2025, for Cyclone Tam in April, Nelson-Tasman flooding in July and South Island storms in October.

September 2025 - 2degrees Reports Mobile Revenue of NZ$581.5 Million

• On 23 September 2025 2degrees reported mobile revenue up 4.8% to NZ$581.5 million, within total revenue of NZ$1.385 billion.
• Trading EBITDA rose 11.5% to NZ$395.3 million, and operating cash flow reached NZ$237.3 million.
• The company described its AST SpaceMobile partnership as a multi-million-dollar investment to connect phones directly to satellites.

Key Insight

Annual results show steady mobile revenue growth at the largest operators, while satellite adoption milestones and a challenger's partnership plans point to continued competition on coverage and plan value.

New Zealand Telecom MNO Industry Segmentation

The Expert Market Research’s report on the New Zealand Telecom MNO Market offers a detailed analysis of the market based on the following segments.

Market Breakup by Service Type

• Mobile Data Services
• Voice and Messaging
• IoT and Machine-to-Machine Connectivity
• Wholesale and MVNO Access
• Others

Mobile Data Services lead on value, in our estimate, because every plan bundles growing allowances and data use reached 8.40 GB per connection in the year to June 2025. Voice and Messaging flatten as legacy voice fell to 3.2% of Spark's revenue, reported in August 2026. IoT and Machine-to-Machine Connectivity grows fastest at an estimated 6.4% CAGR through 2035, supported by One NZ's satellite connectivity for remote sensors announced in December 2025. Wholesale and MVNO Access gains as virtual operators held 3.2% of connections at 30 June 2025, up 0.7 percentage points.

Market Breakup by Network Technology

• 4G LTE
• 5G
• Satellite Direct-to-Cell
• Others

4G LTE leads on value, in our estimate, because it carries most handsets and absorbed traffic from the 2G and 3G closures completed in March 2026. 5G gains as 3G spectrum is reused, with One NZ citing NZ$100 million of investment in the 12 months to March 2026. Satellite Direct-to-Cell grows fastest at an estimated 11.8% CAGR through 2035 from a very small base, after One NZ added data in February 2026 and Spark launched on 1 April 2026. Others include fixed wireless access and private networks, with 5G fixed wireless covering 82% of urban addresses by June 2025.

Market Breakup by Customer Segment

• Consumer Postpaid
• Consumer Prepaid
• Small and Medium Business
• Enterprise and Government
• Others

Consumer Postpaid leads, in our estimate, because plans from NZ$75 a month now bundle Starlink access at Spark, as reported in April 2026. Consumer Prepaid represented 46.3% of connections in the year to June 2025 and is where virtual operators compete hardest. Small and Medium Business benefits from higher average revenue per user, which Spark credited for its mobile service revenue recovery in August 2026. Enterprise and Government grows fastest at an estimated 4.3% CAGR through 2035, on connected devices, secure networks and public-sector demand for resilient coverage.

Market Breakup by Region

• Auckland
• Wellington
• Canterbury
• Waikato
• Rest of New Zealand
• Others

Auckland dominates, in our estimate, as the country's largest population and business base sits there, and it grows at an estimated 3.2% CAGR through 2035 from a large, mature base. Waikato is the fastest-growing region at an estimated 4.0%, on logistics, dairy and industrial activity. Canterbury grows at 3.5%, with South Island storms in October 2025 showing the value of resilient coverage. Wellington grows at 3.3%, on government demand. Rest of New Zealand, including Dunedin where One NZ began its 3G shutdown in January 2026, grows at 3.4%.

Competitive Landscape in the New Zealand Telecom MNO Market

Competition combines three national networks, satellite partners and virtual operators that buy network access. Entry barriers include spectrum holdings, tower and fibre backhaul access, retail distribution, brand trust and the capital needed for network renewal and satellite partnerships.

One New Zealand

One New Zealand, headquartered in Auckland and owned by Infratil, operates a national mobile network and sells consumer, business and wholesale services. For the year ended 31 March 2026 it reported about 1.98 million mobile connections and mobile recurring revenue of NZ$847.3 million. It added satellite data and WhatsApp calling on Starlink in February 2026, and completed its 2G and 3G shutdown on 23 March 2026.

Spark New Zealand

Spark New Zealand, headquartered in Auckland, runs the largest mobile business by revenue and also owns the Skinny brand. On 20 August 2026 it reported mobile revenue of NZ$1.517 billion and mobile service revenue of NZ$998 million, up 1.1%. It launched Starlink Mobile on 1 April 2026, completed its nationwide 3G shutdown in March 2026 and declared a final dividend of 8 cents per share.

2degrees

2degrees, headquartered in Auckland, is the third national network and also sells broadband and energy through brands including Orcon and Slingshot. In September 2025 it reported mobile revenue of NZ$581.5 million, up 4.8%, and trading EBITDA of NZ$395.3 million. It is partnering with AST SpaceMobile on satellite coverage, with a ground station at Marton granted resource consent in November 2025 and a launch targeted for 2026.

Starlink

Starlink, the satellite arm of SpaceX, based in Starbase, Texas, supplies the direct-to-cell network behind One NZ Satellite and Spark's Starlink Mobile. One NZ said in December 2025 that over 700,000 customers were eligible and more than 7 million texts had been sent, with data added in February 2026. Spark began selling the service on 1 April 2026, so the network now sits behind two national operators.

Other players operating in the New Zealand telecom MNO market include Skinny, Slingshot, Kogan Mobile, Warehouse Mobile, and AST SpaceMobile, alongside regional resellers, enterprise integrators, tower companies and managed connectivity providers supplying services to households, businesses, government agencies and rural communities across New Zealand.

Key Insight

Competition rests on spectrum, network quality, plan value and satellite partnerships rather than headline price alone, while virtual operators and new coverage options keep pressure on the incumbents.