New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market Size, Share and Outlook - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035)

Market Overview

The New Zealand diabetes drugs market is moving from a low-cost, generic-led model towards one with more premium, once-weekly and combination products. Funding rules, rather than clinical availability, decide which medicines reach patients, so each Pharmac announcement can change volumes quickly.

Three forces are shaping the market: a growing diabetes population, with researchers projecting more than half a million New Zealanders affected by 2044 in coverage from January 2025; wider access to empagliflozin and GLP-1 medicines, reaching about 14,000 more people in the first 12 months; and supplier rationalisation of older insulins.

In April 2025 Pharmac decided to fund Ryzodeg from 1 May 2025, and in July 2026 it told prescribers that several Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk insulin presentations would stop being sold. In August 2026 it removed cardiovascular, kidney and ethnicity-based criteria for four type 2 diabetes medicines from 1 September 2026.

Key Market Trends and Insights

• Wider access decision: Pharmac announced on 5 August 2026 that about 14,000 more people would gain access to funded diabetes medicines in the first 12 months, rising to about 31,000 after five years.
• Large current user base: About 145,000 people already use empagliflozin, empagliflozin with metformin, dulaglutide or liraglutide, so the wider criteria add volume to an established base rather than a new one.
• Strong consultation response: Nearly 1,900 submissions were made on the proposal that Pharmac sent out on 14 May 2026, and the consultation was extended from two weeks to four weeks.
• Insulin portfolio reset: Novo Nordisk told Pharmac that NovoMix 30, Actrapid and Protaphane 3 mL presentations stop selling at the end of 2026, pushing prescribers towards newer insulins such as Ryzodeg.

New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market Size and Forecast

The market is moving from older insulins and generic oral agents towards SGLT2 inhibitors, once-weekly GLP-1 receptor agonists and newer basal and combination insulins. Insulin and analogues lead in value because of long-term use, while Biguanides carry the highest patient volume at very low prices. GLP-1 receptor agonists and type 2 diabetes advance fastest, and online pharmacies gain share from community outlets as private-pay prescriptions grow. Auckland remains the largest region, and Waikato grows quickest. Special Authority changes, supplier portfolio consolidation and the pending assessment of tirzepatide point to a durable shift in product mix rather than a cyclical uplift.

Key Takeaways: New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market

Funding Decisions Drive Volume Growth

Revenue is on course to expand by about 69% across the decade, from USD 190.00 million in 2025 to USD 321.48 million in 2035 at a 5.4% CAGR. Pharmac's removal of cardiovascular, kidney and ethnicity-based criteria from 1 September 2026 opens access for an additional 31,000 people within five years.

GLP-1 and Type 2 Segments Lead Growth

Insulin and Analogues hold the largest share, but GLP-1 Receptor Agonists grow at an estimated 8.2% CAGR and Type 2 Diabetes at an estimated 5.9% CAGR through 2035. Pharmac is also assessing a tirzepatide application for insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes.

Insulin Portfolios Are Being Rationalised

Suppliers are retiring older presentations, so prescribers and pharmacies are moving patients to newer products, which reduces choice in the short term but supports analogue and combination insulins.

• Novo Nordisk stops selling NovoMix 30, Actrapid and Protaphane 3 mL at the end of 2026
• Eli Lilly ended wholesaler sales of Humalog and Humulin 10 mL vials between June and August 2026
• Ryzodeg has been funded since 1 May 2025 as a switching option

New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market Report Summary

Key Insight

Funding rules decide which medicines reach patients, and wider access is lifting demand for newer injectable and combination products. Auckland leads, and Waikato grows fastest across the forecast period.

Key Trends in the New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market

The New Zealand diabetes drugs market is being reshaped by wider Special Authority access, insulin portfolio changes, unfunded weight and diabetes injectables under review and a growing patient base.

August 2026 - Pharmac Widens Access to Four Type 2 Diabetes Medicines

• Pharmac announced on 5 August 2026 that new criteria for empagliflozin, empagliflozin with metformin, dulaglutide and liraglutide start on 1 September 2026.
• The cardiovascular, kidney and ethnicity-based requirements were removed, while the need for elevated blood sugar remains, with empagliflozin used before the GLP-1 medicines where appropriate.
• About 14,000 more people should benefit in the first 12 months, which directly raises prescription volumes for the suppliers of these brands.

July 2026 - Eli Lilly Withdraws Humalog and Humulin 10 mL Vials

• Pharmac's primary care update of 10 July 2026 said Eli Lilly would stop selling Humalog, Humulin NPH and Humulin 30/70 vials to wholesalers between June and August 2026.
• The 3 mL penfill presentations of these insulins remain available, so patients can change presentation without leaving the brand family.
• Vial users now need new prescriptions and supply checks, which adds pharmacy workload.

May 2026 - Pharmac Consults on Wider Diabetes Access and Reviews Tirzepatide

• Pharmac sent its consultation letter on 14 May 2026, and the period was extended from two weeks to four weeks after respondents said two weeks was too short.
• Pharmac reported that it was assessing a Mounjaro application for insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes, while Wegovy sat on its Options for Investment List.
• A positive decision would shift private-pay users into the funded market.

March 2026 - Obesity Advisers Back Semaglutide for High-BMI Patients

• Pharmac said on 9 March 2026 that its Obesity Treatments Advisory Group, which first met in December 2025, rated semaglutide for chronic weight management as a high priority.
• It had received three semaglutide applications, including one for insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes.
• Pharmac stressed that an advisory recommendation does not guarantee funding.

Key Insight

Wider Special Authority access, retiring insulin presentations and pending reviews of unfunded injectables are the main structural forces, while funding timing and confidential pricing remain risks to growth.

Recent Market Developments in the New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market

Recent developments, presented from the most recent, show global insulin switching, an insulin supplier rationalisation notice, a privately funded weight management launch and a new combination insulin listing.

July 2026 - Sanofi Reports Toujeo Growth as Lantus Declines

• Sanofi's half-year 2026 report, covering events up to 24 July 2026, showed Toujeo sales up 7.5% at constant exchange rates to EUR 729 million.
• Lantus sales fell 3.8% to EUR 813 million, which the company linked to its strategy of switching patients to Toujeo.
• The same switching logic points to gradual movement towards newer basal insulin.

December 2025 - Pharmac Warns of Novo Nordisk Insulin Discontinuations

• A Pharmac notice published on 22 December 2025 said Novo Nordisk was rationalising its range, with PenMix30 Penfill delisted in May 2026.
• NovoMix 30 FlexPen, Actrapid Penfill and Protaphane Penfill 3 mL presentations stop selling at the end of 2026.
• Clinicians were asked to begin transitions early.

July 2025 - Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy for Private Purchase in New Zealand

• Trade press reported on 26 June 2025 that Novo Nordisk would launch Wegovy on 1 July 2025.
• The product is approved for chronic weight management and for reducing cardiovascular risk in adults without diabetes, so it sits beside rather than inside the diabetes market.
• Private demand raises awareness of GLP-1 medicines among people with type 2 diabetes.

May 2025 - Pharmac Funds Ryzodeg from Novo Nordisk

• Pharmac announced on 11 April 2025 that Ryzodeg, combining long-acting and rapid-acting insulin, would be funded from 1 May 2025.
• About 12,000 people were expected to use it in the first year, rising to about 18,000 after five years.
• It gives NovoMix 30 users a funded option that may need fewer daily injections.

Key Insight

Insulin switching, supplier range rationalisation and the private launch of a weight management injectable show suppliers positioning for newer basal, combination and incretin products as funding criteria evolve.

New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Industry Segmentation

The Expert Market Research’s report on the New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market offers a detailed analysis of the market based on the following segments.

Market Breakup by Drug Class

• Insulin and Analogues
• Biguanides
• GLP-1 Receptor Agonists
• SGLT2 Inhibitors
• Others

Insulin and Analogues lead on value, in our estimate, because of lifelong use in type 1 and advanced type 2 diabetes, with Ryzodeg funded from 1 May 2025 and several older presentations retiring in 2026. GLP-1 Receptor Agonists grow fastest at an estimated 8.2% CAGR through 2035, as dulaglutide and liraglutide access widens from 1 September 2026 and tirzepatide is assessed. Biguanides, led by metformin, keep the highest patient volumes at very low prices. SGLT2 Inhibitors expand with empagliflozin, a first step before GLP-1 medicines under the August 2026 criteria. Others include sulfonylureas and DPP-4 inhibitors.

Market Breakup by Diabetes Type

• Type 2 Diabetes
• Type 1 Diabetes
• Gestational Diabetes
• Others

Type 2 Diabetes leads and is also the fastest-growing segment at an estimated 5.9% CAGR through 2035, because Pharmac's widened criteria from 1 September 2026 target about 14,000 more people in the first year and about 31,000 after five years. Type 1 Diabetes depends on insulin and, in our estimate, grows steadily as funded devices raise treatment persistence. Gestational Diabetes is smaller and relies on metformin and insulin. Others include monogenic and secondary forms of diabetes, supported by projections of more than half a million affected New Zealanders by 2044.

Market Breakup by Distribution Channel

• Community Pharmacies
• Hospital Pharmacies
• Online Pharmacies
• Others

Community Pharmacies lead, in our estimate, because most funded prescriptions are dispensed there and pharmacies handled the insulin changes announced by Pharmac in July 2026. Hospital Pharmacies supply initiation of insulin and complex type 1 cases, including vial presentations withdrawn by Eli Lilly. Online Pharmacies grow fastest at an estimated 7.0% CAGR through 2035, as private-pay prescriptions for newer injectables such as Wegovy, launched in July 2025, move to telehealth and delivery. Others cover wholesaler and clinic supply.

Market Breakup by Region

• Auckland
• Wellington
• Canterbury
• Waikato
• Rest of New Zealand
• Others

Auckland dominates, in our estimate, as the most populous region with the largest patient and pharmacy base, and it grows at an estimated 5.2% CAGR through 2035 from a large, mature base. Waikato is the fastest-growing region at an estimated 6.0%, on population growth and wider primary care access under the August 2026 criteria. Canterbury grows at 5.4%, supported by a large older population and strong hospital services. Wellington grows at 4.9%, and Rest of New Zealand at 5.5% as rural patients use online and community supply.

Competitive Landscape in the New Zealand Diabetes Drugs Market

Competition combines global insulin and incretin developers, branded oral manufacturers and generic suppliers selling under Pharmac contracts. Entry barriers include funding listings, Special Authority criteria, confidential rebates, Medsafe registration and relationships with prescribers and pharmacies.

Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk, the Danish diabetes and obesity specialist headquartered in Bagsvaerd, supplies Victoza, Ryzodeg, NovoMix 30, Actrapid, Protaphane and Wegovy in New Zealand. Ryzodeg was funded from 1 May 2025 with about 12,000 users expected in the first year. The company has told Medsafe and Pharmac that older insulin presentations are being phased out, with several 3 mL products ending at the end of 2026, while Wegovy has been sold privately since July 2025.

Eli Lilly

Eli Lilly, headquartered in Indianapolis in the United States, supplies Trulicity, Humalog and Humulin insulins in New Zealand. Pharmac's update of 10 July 2026 said 10 mL vials of Humalog, Humulin NPH and Humulin 30/70 would stop selling to wholesalers between June and August 2026, while 3 mL penfills remain. In May 2026 Pharmac reported assessing a Mounjaro application for type 2 diabetes, a key pipeline decision.

Boehringer Ingelheim

Boehringer Ingelheim, a family-owned research company headquartered in Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany, markets Jardiance and the fixed-dose combination Jardiamet in New Zealand. Both are among the four medicines Pharmac widened access to from 1 September 2026, when cardiovascular, kidney and ethnicity-based criteria were removed. Empagliflozin is the required first step before dulaglutide or liraglutide, which places Boehringer Ingelheim's brand at the front of the expanded funded pathway.

Sanofi

Sanofi, headquartered in Paris, is a long-established supplier of insulin glargine brands including Lantus and Toujeo. Its half-year 2026 report showed Toujeo sales rising 7.5% at constant exchange rates to EUR 729 million, while Lantus fell 3.8% as patients switched. The company also reported Soliqua growth of 24.3%, indicating continued demand for basal insulin and GLP-1 combinations.

Other players operating in the New Zealand diabetes drugs market include AstraZeneca, Novartis, Viatris, Apotex, and Teva, alongside generic suppliers, parallel importers, wholesalers and pharmacy groups supplying metformin, sulfonylureas and DPP-4 inhibitors across New Zealand.

Key Insight

Competition rests on funding listings, Special Authority criteria, confidential supply agreements and prescriber relationships rather than price alone, while insulin range changes could reshape positions.