Australia Mining Market Size, Share and Outlook - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends (2026-2035)

How large is the Australia mining market, and where is it heading?

Quick Answer

The Australia mining market encompasses the extraction, processing, and export of metallic and energy minerals: iron ore, coal, LNG, gold, lithium, copper, aluminium, alumina, bauxite, nickel, zinc, and critical minerals. Resources and energy export earnings reached AUD 385 billion in FY 2024-2025, representing ~two-thirds of total merchandise exports and ~14 per cent of GDP. The mining industry directly employs 299,200 people (Jobs and Skills Australia, August 2025) and supports 1.1 million jobs across the supply chain. Iron ore at AUD 116 billion leads, with gold rising rapidly (forecast AUD 69 billion in FY 2025-2026), overtaking LNG as second-largest earner. Critical minerals exports forecast to grow from AUD 11 billion to AUD 14 billion by FY 2026-2027. The mining industry is projected to reach AUD 569.88 billion in export value by 2035 at a 4.0 per cent CAGR.

Market Overview

Mining underpins Australia's trade balance in a way no other sector comes close to matching. Resources and energy export earnings came in at AUD 385 billion in FY 2024-2025: roughly two-thirds of everything Australia sells abroad. The Australia mining market sits at ~14 per cent of GDP, directly employs just under 300,000 people, and supports ~1.1 million jobs when you count the equipment, technology, and services businesses that wrap around the mines and LNG facilities. Pay is well above the national median at AUD 2,649 per week for full-time employees in August 2025, which is partly why mining jobs remain attractive despite the FIFO lifestyle.

Australia's position in global commodity markets is worth stating plainly. Largest iron ore exporter in the world at ~37 per cent of global output. Largest lithium producer at ~40 per cent of global supply. Major player in gold, metallurgical and thermal coal, LNG, copper, nickel, zinc, bauxite, alumina, and manganese. Export volumes across most of these commodities are holding steady or growing through 2025-2027, even as prices ease from post-pandemic highs. The energy transition is quietly rewiring the demand mix: critical minerals exports are forecast to grow from AUD 11 billion in FY 2024-2025 to AUD 14 billion by FY 2026-2027, faster than almost anything else in the mining industry.

At October 2025, REMP 2025 counted 432 major resource and energy projects in active development, up from 407 a year earlier. 21 were completed during 2025 worth AUD 11 billion combined, and 72 new projects were added. AUD 62 billion in committed projects represents a solid and deliverable pipeline. The number edged back from AUD 65 billion the prior year, reflecting completions rolling off the list and some owners sitting on their hands while watching where global uncertainty lands. Healthy, in other words, but not booming.

Key Market Trends and Insights

• Gold is on track to become Australia's second-largest resource export: The OCE puts gold export earnings at AUD 69 billion in FY 2025-2026 and AUD 74 billion in FY 2026-2027. Prices hit a new record above USD 4,360/oz in October 2025. Australian output was ~72 tonnes per quarter in late 2024, projected toward 360 tonnes per year by 2027. Gold exploration spent AUD 1.3 billion in FY 2024-2025, a full 34 per cent of total Australian mineral exploration.
• Iron ore still dominates, but the price outlook is working against it: AUD 116 billion in FY 2024-2025: ~25 per cent of all resource and energy earnings. The forecast is for gradual decline: AUD 114 billion in FY 2025-2026, AUD 107 billion by FY 2026-2027. New supply from Africa, Brazil, and Australian expansions is adding to global inventory faster than Chinese steel demand is growing.
• LNG earnings are falling: AUD 65 billion in FY 2024-2025, second place behind iron ore. New LNG supply from the US and Qatar is pushing global spot prices down. By FY 2026-2027, LNG earnings are forecast at AUD 47 billion: a AUD 18 billion drop in ~two years. Australia remains the world's second-largest LNG exporter, but the peak earnings phase is behind it.
• Copper hit record prices and Australian supply is growing into it: LME copper hit USD 11,870/tonne in December 2025, driven by tight supply and structural demand from electrification. Australian export volumes forecast to grow from 768 kt in FY 2024-2025 to 962 kt by FY 2026-2027, earnings from AUD 13 billion to AUD 17.6 billion. BHP's Olympic Dam smelter expansion could more than double copper output from that facility.
• Lithium recovery is underway: Export earnings of AUD 4.8 billion in FY 2024-2025 are well below the 2022-2023 peak. December 2025 REQ forecast is for recovery: AUD 6.8 billion by FY 2026-2027 as prices and volumes improve. Output grows ~5 per cent annually to 147.3 kt by 2030. Liontown's Kathleen Valley and SQM's Mt Holland are key volume drivers.
• Critical minerals are the fastest-growing export category: Rare earths, antimony, cobalt, manganese, graphite: collectively forecast to grow from AUD 11 billion in FY 2024-2025 to AUD 14 billion by FY 2026-2027. A quarter of all REMP 2025 projects are critical minerals, with AUD 20 billion proposed investment in later-stage projects. The AUD 4 billion Critical Minerals Facility and CMPTI are federal levers.

Australia Mining Market Size and Forecast

Key Takeaways: Australia Mining Market

The Commodity Mix Is Rotating Beneath Stable Headline Exports

The Australia mining industry's AUD 385 billion in export earnings is holding broadly stable at the headline level, but the composition is shifting meaningfully. Iron ore's share is declining as prices soften and new African supply arrives. LNG's peak earnings phase is behind it. Gold is about to overtake LNG as second-largest export. Copper is setting price records and Australian volumes are growing into it. Critical minerals are the fastest-growing category, backed by AUD 7 billion in production tax credits. The mining industry that exists in 2035 will look structurally different from the 2020 version: less iron-ore-dependent, more diversified across transition-critical commodities.

432 Major Projects Under Development Represent a Credible Deliverable Pipeline

REMP 2025 identifies 432 major resource and energy projects in active development, up from 407 a year earlier. 72 new projects added, 21 completed. AUD 62 billion in committed projects. The pipeline is healthy but cautious: the committed investment number edged back from AUD 65 billion as some owners wait on global conditions. Critical minerals account for a quarter of projects at every stage, reflecting where the federal government is actively deploying the Critical Minerals Facility, CMPTI, and Future Made in Australia funding.

Geopolitics Is Now a Commercial Variable in Critical Minerals

An Australia-US rare earths deal signed in November 2025 is expected to attract USD 2 billion in new investment within six months. The October 2025 US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework opened a USD 8.5 billion bilateral pipeline. The Strategic Reserve legislation authorised Export Finance Australia to physically stockpile minerals. These moves reflect Western governments treating Chinese processing dominance as a security problem, and Australia is positioned as the preferred alternative. For Australian critical minerals producers, this creates durable price premiums for material that can certify origin and processing outside Chinese supply chains.

Key Insight

The Australia mining industry's transition from iron-ore and LNG dependence toward a more diversified commodity mix, with gold ascendant and critical minerals accelerating, is happening whether or not commodity prices cooperate in the short run. The AUD 7 billion Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive, the US-Australia Framework (USD 8.5 billion), and the Strategic Reserve legislation collectively represent the most serious federal intervention in the sector's structure since the 1970s. Whether these policies convert to commercial-scale processing and value-add will be the mining industry's defining story of the 2026-2035 decade.

Key Trends and Recent Developments in the Australia Mining Market

OCE Resources and Energy Quarterly December 2025

The December 2025 REQ from the Office of the Chief Economist is the authoritative short-term commodity forecast for the Australia mining industry. It confirms AUD 385 billion in FY 2024-2025 export earnings, forecasts AUD 383 billion in FY 2025-2026, and AUD 374 billion in FY 2026-2027. Gold is forecast to overtake LNG as second-largest export in FY 2025-2026. Critical minerals rise from AUD 11 billion to AUD 14 billion. The REQ is published quarterly and is the single most consulted forecast document in the sector.

Resources and Energy Major Projects 2025 Report, October 2025

REMP 2025, released alongside the December 2025 REQ, identified 432 major resource and energy projects under development at 31 October 2025, up from 407 a year earlier. 21 completed in 2025 worth AUD 11 billion combined; 72 new projects added. Committed investment sits at AUD 62 billion, down from AUD 65 billion. Critical minerals account for a quarter of projects at every stage. The REMP is the definitive project pipeline tracker for the Australia mining industry.

US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework and Rare Earths Deal, October-November 2025

The October 2025 Framework for Securing of Supply opened a USD 8.5 billion bilateral investment pipeline. A specific Australia-US rare earths deal signed in November 2025 is expected to attract USD 2 billion in new investment within six months. November 2025 also saw Strategic Reserve legislation giving Export Finance Australia the power to physically stockpile key minerals: a policy move that would have seemed unthinkable a decade ago.

Australia Mining Industry Segmentation

Market Breakup by Commodity

• Iron Ore: AUD 116 billion in FY 2024-2025, ~30 per cent of mining industry export earnings. Forecast to decline to AUD 107 billion by FY 2026-2027 on softening Chinese steel demand. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue dominate the Pilbara.
• Gold: Rising rapidly. AUD 69 billion forecast FY 2025-2026, becoming the second-largest earner. Record prices in October 2025 above USD 4,360/oz. 34 per cent of all mineral exploration spend.
• LNG: AUD 65 billion in FY 2024-2025 but falling. Forecast AUD 47 billion by FY 2026-2027 as US and Qatari supply pressures global prices. Woodside and Santos lead.
• Metallurgical and Thermal Coal: AUD 39 billion in metallurgical coal FY 2024-2025. Queensland Bowen Basin supplies ~90 per cent of national met coal. Thermal coal volumes stable but facing long-term structural pressure from energy transition.
• Copper: AUD 13 billion in FY 2024-2025, forecast AUD 17.6 billion by FY 2026-2027 at record prices. BHP Olympic Dam expansion is one of the more consequential uncommitted projects in the country.
• Lithium: AUD 4.8 billion FY 2024-2025, recovering to AUD 6.8 billion forecast FY 2026-2027. WA-dominated: Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, Mt Marion, Wodgina, Kathleen Valley, Mt Holland.
• Critical Minerals (Rare Earths, Cobalt, Antimony, Manganese, Graphite): AUD 11 billion to AUD 14 billion by FY 2026-2027. The fastest-growing mining industry export category.

Market Breakup by State

• Western Australia: Dominates iron ore, lithium, gold, nickel, LNG. The Pilbara produces ~37 per cent of global iron ore. All six operating lithium mines are in WA.
• Queensland: ~90 per cent of national metallurgical coal from the Bowen Basin. Significant bauxite, alumina, gold, and emerging critical minerals.
• New South Wales: Thermal coal from the Hunter Valley. Mineral sands, gold, silver, zinc, and lead.
• South Australia: BHP Olympic Dam copper-uranium-gold complex. Emerging mineral sands and critical minerals.
• Northern Territory: Manganese (Groote Eylandt), uranium, rare earths, and emerging lithium. Darwin port is the main export infrastructure.

Competitive Landscape and Key Players in the Australia Mining Market

The Australia mining market has a clear competitive structure: a small number of large integrated majors dominating iron ore, LNG, and bulk commodities, and a large cohort of mid-cap and junior explorers concentrated in gold, lithium, and critical minerals. Chinese strategic investment holds significant stakes across lithium and some critical minerals.

BHP Group Limited

Largest ASX company by market cap. Pilbara iron ore operations supply ~20 per cent of global seaborne iron ore. Copper portfolio at Olympic Dam (SA), Escondida (Chile), and the WA copper project is the longer-term growth lever. Met coal operations in Queensland.

Rio Tinto Limited

Runs what's widely regarded as the world's most efficient iron ore system in the Pilbara. Major aluminium producer through Weipa (bauxite) and Gove. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is worth watching as potential structural new supply competition for Chinese steel mill demand.

Fortescue Metals Group

Third-largest iron ore exporter. Serious investor in green energy through Fortescue Future Industries: green hydrogen and green iron from WA. The energy transition investments are real but economics at scale remain unproven.

Woodside Energy Group

Australia's largest independent oil and gas producer. Primary operator on the North West Shelf and Pluto LNG in WA. The 2022 merger with BHP's petroleum assets added scale and international reach. LNG is a top-three Australia mining industry export by value.

Newmont (post-Newcrest acquisition)

Following the November 2023 acquisition of Newcrest Mining, Newmont operates the largest gold portfolio in Australia including Cadia (NSW), Tanami (NT), Telfer (WA), and Boddington (WA). The dominant gold producer by volume, supplying the surge in gold export earnings to AUD 69 billion forecast in FY 2025-2026.

Other significant players include Glencore (coal, copper, zinc), Anglo American, Whitehaven Coal, South32 (aluminium, manganese), Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources (lithium), Lynas Rare Earths, Iluka Resources, Santos, and a broad base of ASX-listed junior and mid-cap explorers across critical minerals.